What Science Says Why It’s So Difficult To Predict Earthquakes


Science News Desk – This time the world has seen the devastation caused by the earthquake in Turkey, which has never been seen before. Not even a week has passed since the earthquake that the death toll has crossed 22 thousand. Rescue workers are worried about who they should rescue first among the people trapped under the debris. But is it possible to predict such earthquakes? Why is it that the ability to predict such a devastating natural disaster has not yet been developed even after all the technological advances. What does science say about this?

the answer is simple but not easy
The answer to this question is not easy and there is a reason for it. Three aspects play a role in earthquake predictions. These are called the epicentre, that is, the center of the earthquake on the surface, which is called the epicentre, time and magnitude. But apart from these, many things have to be taken care of. But scientifically speaking, given the complexity of the functioning inside the earth, it is not yet possible to forecast earthquakes.

what could be possible
But it is also important to know why this is so, which will answer the question of when this can be possible. Earthquake processes and systems inside the Earth are very complex and contain many factors that are not yet known. Only one of these is the origin of the earthquake, which is called the focus or epicenter. Perhaps in the future, after knowing these factors, earthquake prediction would be possible.

what is the truth of probability
But many times scientists know that it can come in any area or in which year or in how many years. The reason for this is that there are many areas of the world where earthquakes are more likely to occur. And their frequency can also be estimated from experience. Friction between Earth’s tectonic plates is what causes most earthquakes.

estimation probabilities
Due to the low rate of interaction between the plates, it is known whether earthquakes will occur frequently or occasionally. For example, the rift between the North American and Pacific plates, called the San Andreas Fault, collides at a slow rate of 35 mm per year, so a major earthquake should occur in California every 150 years, whereas the previous major The earthquake was 175 years ago. had come. Overall, accurate estimation of earthquake is not possible right now.

why not hurricane earthquake
Earthquake forecasting is compared to hurricane forecasting. It is argued that if it is possible to predict storms a few days in advance, why not earthquakes. But storms can also be seen from satellites, but for movements below the Earth’s surface, we rely on seismic waves that we get just before an earthquake and it takes hundreds of years to get detailed information. Are.

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